Is Mahinda ready for a defeat and for a peaceful exchange of power? – Robinhood

The conditions complying to the defeat of Mahinda has been already established. The hostility which started from lower, middle class, higher society, urban has already completed spreading to the village level. The popularity of Mahinda has befallen among the public sector of the permanent supporters of the UPFA. It was reported about 65% of majority votes of the security forces, teachers, different professions of the public sector has been possessed by Maithree.
After a lengthy discussion the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) too has decided to support Maithree. Therefore all minority votes have been bereaved for Mahinda. In order to win Mahinda has to score more than 63% from the Buddhist Singhalese masses, which is impossible. With all abuse of power and attacking the opposition politicos Mahinda reached this milestone only during the Wayamba PC elections while the North and east was defeated with a higher percentage. If one can disregard the current waves of Maithree, there are no chances for Mahinda to win. There is only a few days left for the elections. Even a spiritual miracle cannot change the people’s opinion.

Mahinda will not be certainly unaware of the defeat he is going to face. Mahinda will never blindly believe the people would make him win. We can never anticipate they would keep hope on only on astrologers who can give predictions. There would be no doubt the latter would have realized the current situation is unfavorable and if this continues until the day of elections they would definitely suffocate an absolute defeat.

If they incur a defeat it would not only be the remaining two years but including the long term family governance plans, personal desires and expectations. Not only the monarch but prince, princess including privileged ministers, secretaries, police and military henchmen’s, officer class, bosom business associates too would be stepping down. Will Mahinda and his clang, would accept this defeat lightly? Will they remain as a spectator of this sudden destruction of their long term plans? Will they be ready for a peaceful exchange of powers? If not will they try to sustain in power? If so in what way would that be? Will Rajapaksa would disapprove the people’s verdict and stay in power? Is there a secondary plan for the clang to disapprove the public opinion and continue to be in power? If so, what kind of a plan would that be has to be considered?

The fate of our country lies on the answers for these questions. People who are sensitive about politics and value democracy should be more vigilant of these repercussions. Therefore it is necessary to analyze the secondary plan of the Rajapaksas. The abuse of power and the attacks carried on targeting the common candidate proves that the Rajapaksa is reluctant to accept the public opinion. As a matter of fact the Rajapaksas will somehow compensate something very large and try to win this election by fowl means.

How would Rajapaksa win this election by fowl mean?

The Rajapaksa would use his maximum power to exercise all his abuse of powers harming the election campaign of the common opposition candidate. Further the Rajapaksa would pay any amount and acquire front line leaders from the opposition. Rajapaksa would not succeed if he tries to exercise a military offensive to suppress the opposition following the election results because the Sri Lankan military has never exercised them in a political environment. Meantime the Sri Lankan military has not built their authority on caste and races. Further there is no significant reputation for the Rajapaksa inside the army. Following the selections of corrupt war heroes from the top ranks of the army the lower rank members has no respect for their high rank officers. If Rajapaksa neglect all this and go for a military suppression by trusting henchmen brigadiers and major Generals in the army it would be deadliest. If Rajapaksa decides to exercise a military suppression it would be more a suicidal for the latter who called for an early election for not having the capacity to assess the situation of his allies and the lack of his political intelligence to pre identify the breakaway of his party secretary until last moment who went breaking the two third of his alliance and became the common opposition candidate.

When analyzing the secondary plan of the Rajapaksa it is useful to consider few international events leading to it. During the 2008 elections in Zimbabwe, despite analysis from all surveys it was confirmed that President Mugabe would lose. During the elections campaign the opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai had a very large public support. People of Zimbabwe, bearing a high cost of living wanted a regime change. Elections were held as scheduled on March 29th 2008 in a non free and fair manner with abuse of power and violence. Despite severe criticism of rights organizations of this corrupt election Mugabe did not release the election results as scheduled. In spite of continuous international pressure finally with many distortions the results was released after two months. Following the controversial results the opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai obtained 48.87% and Robert Mugabe received 43.24% from the votes polled.
Though Morgan Tsvangirai won the election in the first round, following the failure to obtain more than 50% the election commissioner decided to hold a second election on June 22nd. During the second round Mugabe was so barbaric to attack his opposition candidate that Morgan Tsvangirai had to resign from contesting. Therefore Mugabe contested alone and won the second round.

In 1994 during a presidential election in Mexico, presidential candidate cum economist Donald Colosia was shot and assassinated.

Therefore we are still uncertain whether Rajapaksa would follow either Zimbabwean style or a Mexican style or repeat his usual style by a computer manipulation or by disallowing a region to vote. However despite corruption there is no possible opportunity for Mahinda Rajapaksa to win this election. Amid the fearless, independent and unbiased progress of the election commissioner in the last few days there is a hope that the latter would conduct a free and fair election. If not what is only left for Mahinda Rajapaksa is to openly pillage people’s right to vote.

If Rajapaksa is not prepared for a peaceful handing over of their powers or plan to chose any one of the secondary option above or suppress the public opinion by unleashing his military the people should come forward and able to defeat such an authoritarian suppression.

Robinhood – Promoting a free and fair election.