By Rajiv Wijesinha - From Colombo Telegraph
When I began
this column, over seven months ago, I did not think that the threat to
President Rajapaksa would come to fruition quite so quickly. Until the
incidents at Aluthgama, I thought it unlikely that anyone would be able to
defeat him in a Presidential election. After that I thought any reasonable
candidate would probably win, if there was unity in the opposition, but it
seemed unlikely that that would be achieved. And after Uva, when it seemed that
the government was on a slippery slope, I assumed Mahinda Rajapaksa would have
the sense to back down if he was unable to make the few simple reforms and
tough decisions that would have restored his popularity.
But he
failed to do so, perhaps because vast funds had been spent and there would be
nothing left for the sort of propaganda blitz he was planning if the election
had to be postponed till 2015. So it is likely that he will soon be history.
Fortunately he has an opponent who will safeguard his position in history, and
make sure that his victory against terrorism in 2009 will not be forgotten. He
then has little to lose, if he is willing to accept defeat gracefully.
The same is
not true however of those who have profited from his Presidency, and I suspect
they will use every trick in the book to cling to power. But even they are
running out of tricks, and by now they have begun to realize that the hammer
and tongs approach they had decided on simply will not work. Thus, though
Temple Trees is full of visitors who are sumptuously treated, everyone now
knows who is paying for this, and many of the invitees, who would rather not
waste their time on long journeys, are even less likely to vote for the
President. Certainly, though they may be more sophisticated than most, and to
generalize from them would be dangerous, colleagues at university have affirmed
the need for change, and their disgust at being forced to have dinner at short
notice with the President.
But in such
a context I fear that the bright sparks who control the President may decide to
go further afield, in their determination to win somehow. My suspicions about
this were roused when, following the efforts of the President to claim that I
had been supportive of the GTF, the GTF began to be critical of the UNP. This
was done by the same Suren Surendiran whose claims about war crimes the
President declared I had agreed with. That was complete nonsense, and either
the President had been misinformed, or else he has decided that he does not
need to distinguish between truth and falsehood in his determination to stick
to his original plan for winning the election.
That, on the
assumption that Ranil Wickremesinghe was going to be his opponent, was to
present the latter as soft on the Tigers and affirm his own genius in defeating
them, and claim that Ranil would help the Tigers to take judicial action
against him if he lost. But while some of the more dogmatic amongst the Tigers
might dream of this, even they realize that this is not likely to happen if Mr
Sirisena wins.
And the more
subtle amongst them know that their best bet for the future is another
Rajapaksa Presidency, and the implosion of the state that will then take place
after the report due in Geneva in March 2014. Not only will our sovereignty be
at stake, but there will be pressure for economic and travel sanctions against
us, and not all the huffing and puffing that Wimal Weerawansa will engage in
will prevent a plethora of internal problems. In such a context, separatists
will start stirring, and the sensible people in the TNA will be pushed aside,
on the grounds that there is no hope of a negotiated solution. If the President
Rajapaksa who had pledged such a soluation was not able to deliver when he had
a massive majority in Parliament, he will certainly not move when he is further
in the clutches of those who understand neither political principles nor
international realities.
So I can
understand why Suren Surendiran is now highlighting the racism of the UNP in
the past. He uses what I have written and tweets that ‘Rajiva admits state
violence was really begun by UNP’. This suggests he would quite like it if the
people of the North thought twice about supporting the common opposition
candidate.
I hope
Surendiran will be more sensible, and realize that the diaspora must give up
their dreams of Eelam and war crimes prosecutions, but rather work together
with moderate Tamils and Sinhalese (like the Northern Chief Minister and the
bulk of the SLFP as represented by Maithri, along with his coalition). That
will help us reach a political solution that ensures National Security, and the
primacy of National Policy, whilst allowing for decisions about development and
social services to be taken by those affected by those decisions. But it is
apparent that some of the more extreme elements in Tamil politics are anxious
to stop Maithripala winning, so that their dreams of international intervention
will be fulfilled. Media outlets which have not subscribed to the more moderate
approach of the mainstream Tamil National Alliance are critical of the
opposition alliance for a range of reasons, and I suspect they will push this
line in the next few weeks.
All this
fits in with the claim that in 2005 the Tigers ensured there was a boycott of
the election so that Mahinda Rajapaksa would be elected. That strategy failed,
because Mr Prabhakaran erred in being confident then of his military prowess,
and thinking he could provoke the government into a war that he would be able
to win. The war did happen, but when government was ready to respond, after the
six months Sarath Fonseka asked for to prepare his forces, and we have to be
thankful that Mahinda Rajapaksa took on the challenge then, that his Secretary
of Defence and the commanders of the forces worked out an effective strategy,
and that he was able to deploy excellent diplomats to hold international
interference at bay.
But those
few who still dream of a separate state no longer rely on armed force. Rather
they know the battleground has shifted to the international arena, and they
will concentrate on weakening the state. To such a strategy Mahinda Rajapaksa
has no answer – given that, as his virtual Chief of Staff, Sajin Vas
Gunawardena put it, he has no strategy at all, and changes his approach at
random. Certainly with his frontline now being manned by Kshenuka Seneviratne
and Sajin and GL, we can anticipate only disaster after disaster.
The few
extremist Tamils, in the diaspora and here, will not mind that their goal will
involve much suffering in the short term for the Sri Lankan people, both
Sinhala and Tamil – and the Muslims and Christians too, given that the Bodu
Bala Sena will be at the heart of decision making if Mahinda Rajapaksa wins
through an emasculated Sri Lanka Freedom Party and without many votes from
minorities. Given their claim that the JHU has not done enough for Buddhism,
there is no doubt that the BBS will demand their pound of flesh. Promoting that
was I suspect the strategy of those who have done so much to alienate the
minorities, culminating in Sajin Vass Gunewardena’s gratuitous attack on
Catholicism in beating up Chris Nonis, and the insults to Joseph Vaz in the
pronouncements of the favourite columnists, at least until recently, of the Ministry
of Defence.
If then the
Tamils in the North fall for the wiles of the more extreme elements in the GTF
and their own media, we will have a very polarized situation after the
election. That will be perfect for mischief makers, but it will be disastrous
for the country. Sadly, given the desperate need to cling to power of those in
charge of the President’s re-election bid, they will not mind that so long as
they can continue in their merry way.
So we might
see a repeat of the strategies that led to so much support for Ananthi
Sasitharan in the Provincial Council election, whereas the Tamil people
generally supported moderates such as the Chief Minister and Mr Sidharthan of
PLOTE. Typically, Ananthi has claimed that ‘people in the North do not have any
hopes in both presidential candidates’, which is simply not true. Those I met
in my recent visit there had great hopes in Maithri, even without any
commitments, for many of them were fundamentally anxious for democracy and
change. They, like us, believe that once we have got rid of authoritarianism,
there will be no barriers to discussions based on sympathetic understanding of
problems on all sides.
That is what
the extremists in both the North and the South wish to prevent. The moderates
who are the vast majority in this country must work together to overcome that
destructive strategy.
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