From Ceylon Today
by Dr. S.Y.
Quraishi (
Sri Lanka
just concluded its seventh presidential election, which was as dramatic as well
as a landmark. The elections were held in a country with an authoritarian
regime that had abolished all independent commissions, including the Election
Commission. They were conducted by a government official designated as the
Commissioner of Elections, with no power or control over the election
bureaucracy and the Police.
I observed
these polls rather closely as the head of a 23-member observer delegation from
the Association of Asian Election Authorities (AAEA), comprising 11 of the
member countries, from Mongolia to the Maldives and Korea to Kazakhstan. The
Commonwealth Observer Group, led by former President of Guyana, Bharrat Jagdeo
and a delegation from the Forum of the Management Bodies of South Asia
(FEMBoSA) also monitored the poll, apart from several indigenous civil society
groups.
The
invitation sent out by the Commission of Elections to multiple observer groups
was the first sign of a credible election.
Commissioner
Mahinda Deshapriya seemed assured that his poll machinery, including the
police, would pull off a free and fair election, despite its inherent lack of
powers. Opposition parties also seemed to have confidence in his fairness,
which was reassuring.
The
proactive involvement of three major civil society organizations, the People's
Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL), the Campaign for Free and Fair
Elections (CaFFE) and the Centre for Monitoring Electoral Violence (CMEV) was a
good barometer of civic freedom. They were vocal and aggressive while
constantly analyzing the situation and campaign trends, including complaints of
violence, intimidation of voters and abuse of State machinery. A constant
refrain was that the Army had been blatantly used to intimidate voters and stop
them from going to vote — it had set up 400-500 road blocks. There were also
allegations of discrimination directed at the Police, which apparently
registered cases against the Opposition and not against the ruling party, and
at the government's distribution of food items in the name of flood relief.
Assuring
peaceful polls
However, the
Election Commission and the Police assured that no intimidation would be
allowed on polling day. We dispatched observers to all corners of the island. I
travelled more than 1,200 km over four days, covering almost the entire former
war zone in the North. I did not see a single roadblock by the Army. Nor did
anyone else from our team. So were the allegations of intimidation false or
exaggerated? Or did the presence of high-profile observers act as a deterrent
to what had been happening earlier? The way the Election Commission pleaded
with me to travel extensively in the northern area and deploy the most
observers there pointed to the latter. The commissioner later confirmed this.
The fact
that nearly all the officers posted in those districts were Tamil seemed proof
enough that no intimidation of Tamil minorities would be possible, and neither
was it intended. Our conversations with them reaffirmed our comfort with the
poll machinery. In India, we have seen how the ruling parties try to install
loyalists in the critical posts, particularly those of district magistrate and
superintendent of police, ahead of the elections.
Voter
enthusiasm was high. As many as 81.52% of 15 million eligible persons voted.
The operation was managed, as in India, by the bureaucracy, and about two lakh
officials were deployed, besides 72,000 Police and security personnel.
The defeat
of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the victory of Maithripala Sirisena were
swift and dramatic developments. Till a couple of months ago, Rajapaksa was so
much in command; he was reported to have said that he would be contesting
against himself in a shadow-boxing match. Then suddenly he was hit by the
proverbial bolt from the blue. Out of nowhere, his close aide and Minister for
Health, also a Buddhist and from a rural area, defected and was declared the
common candidate of the entire Opposition.
The
challenge grew stronger by the day and the results seemed inevitable. The
incumbent President just could not recover from the shock of the secret
Opposition plan. We were told that they had used communication tools like Viber
and WhatsApp, technologies the rulers could not penetrate, despite every
Opposition leader having been under surveillance.
We also
heard that the President had decided to go for a mid-term poll, a full two
years and two months before the end of his tenure, on the advice of his
astrologer. The calculation, reportedly, was that if he won, he would first
complete his remaining term (allowed by the recently amended Constitution) and
then take charge for the new six-year term. That old proverb, "a bird in
hand is better than two in the bush," would never have been proved so
right.
Broken
expectations
Rajapaksa
was banking on a fractured Opposition, especially a deeply divided United
National Party. But the idea of a common Opposition candidate, though mooted
over a year ago, snowballed once the election was announced. A stream of
defections followed. According to the Daily News, an overnight turncoat
newspaper itself, the support of the Tamil National Alliance(TNA) and the Sri
Lanka Muslim Congress(SLMC) turned the Opposition into the broadest political
coalition in Sri Lanka to date, cutting across party, ethnic and religious boundaries.
Tamils constitute 15%, Muslims 10 % and Christians 6% of the coalition, and
their unity proved to be the decisive factor.
The genesis
of the rise of Rajapaksa — and his eventual downfall — was in the infamous 18th
Amendment to the Constitution, dating back to October 2010, which gave him
total power over all organs of governance, including the judiciary, and ended
the limit of two tenures for the President. The unique provision that he could
seek the people's mandate before the end of the term and yet complete the
existing term before starting the new one, particularly, proved to be his
undoing. Everyone was angered by the extension he gave himself. It was
compounded by blatant nepotism, through which his three brothers, his sons and
nephews controlled every crucial department. Along with the large-scale
corruption charges, these discontents far outweighed the nation's gratitude for
the 'war' victory of 2009.
The peaceful
transition of power initially surprised everyone. Contrary to widespread speculation,
the change of guard was quick and peaceful. The way Rajapaksa accepted the
verdict even before all the votes had been counted, and left the presidential
residence and office, looked extremely dignified. There are whispers, however,
that other 'possible options' had been contemplated but got no support from the
key players. The spokesman of the new President has called it a coup attempt
that will be investigated. The new President took the oath of office within six
hours.
A very
touching personal moment for me, and India, was when Deshapriya announced the
results in the presence of the incoming President and Prime Minister holding my
book, An Undocumented Wonder: the Making of the Great Indian Election, and
quoting Gopal Gandhi's sentence — among the many great things that India has,
three are most important: the Taj Mahal, Mahatma Gandhi and an electoral
democracy. Deshapriya prayed that the Indian model would be emulated and
pleaded for constitutional powers like his Indian counterparts'.
The country
is abuzz with speculation about the future of the 'royal' astrologer. Many
other astrologers have gone into overdrive to find the answer.
(The writer,
former Elections Commissioner of India who was in Sri Lanka as the Chair
Association of Asian Election Authorities (AAEA) to monitor
the Presidential Election
2015)
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