Why the race is 'harder' for Mahinda

From Daily News

Udara Soysa

This election will be recorded in history of Sri Lankan politics as an election that was conducted largely fair and balanced in its overall conduct

Can former President Mahinda Rajapaksa make a significant comeback in this overall political landscape? Mahinda Rajapaksa enters this election without his previous unlimited state resources. He does not have state media or any other state resources at his disposal. In fact, the state media has been very critical of the former President and has aligned itself with the UNP campaign. In the writer's view, this will be a major setback for former President who was venerated as a "king" in the state media over the past five years.

United National Party had been embroiled in an internal conflict since early 2006. The victory of 2015 presidential election effectively united the party and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe is at the peak of his popularity among the rank and file of the party. On the other hand, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa is now facing a United Front which is further strengthened by the likes of nationalist Champika Ranawaka, Rajitha Senaratne, Arjuna Ranatunga and Hirunika Premachandra.

Confusion among UPFA voters over the present state of affairs in the country's politics will also go against the former President. Many among the grassroots ranks of UPFA strongly believe that UNP will win this election and the UPFA leader President Sirisena is secretly backing the UNP. Some also express reluctance to go out and vote due to these harsh realities. This is exactly what the UNP voters underwent for nearly 20 years.

"We are not sure about forming a government even if Rajapaksa wins the election. The Executive President is unlikely to cooperate with the former President," a senior lawyer in Galle, who is involved with UPFA campaign, told this writer last week. The outcome of the next election will be critically dependent on how the former President's team manages these negative emotions and perceptions.

Finally, the lack of efficiency on the part of SLFP provincial and pradeshiya mechanisms at present will also affect the UPFA campaign severely. Internal divisions as well as lack of control over the Samurdhi program, which was heavily and productively used by SLFP during election campaigns from 1997, will further handicap the election campaign.

A sizable proportion of Pradeshiya sabha political activists are visibly confused at present with the latest developments. Many UPFA activists in Southern Sri Lanka question the former President's decision to contest from Kurunegala, an area with which former president has no political connections.

Mahinda Rajapaksa had been able to ride through the popular euphoria of war victories since May 2009. This approach proved to be very effective as evident in the results of election campaigns till 2014. The 2015 election result proved otherwise and the floating voter's focus was primarily on issues such as cost of living, corruption, family rule, justice and good governance. The consistent attitude of minority groups against Mahinda Rajapaksa and Gotabaya Rajapaksa will exacerbate the situation of the former President. A Muslim from Beruwala, who spoke to this writer, said they did not feel safe under the administration of the former President.

He added that he voted for the former President on two occasions until 2010, but the latter changed his political stance due to developments that followed after 2010. Disunity among the UPFA rank and file will also factor in heavily in the upcoming election.

The SLFP heavyweights such as Duminda Dissanayake and Prasanna Sollangarachi are openly criticizing former President while seniors such as S B Dissanayake are strategically positioning themselves in a pro-Sirisena position. In this context, the pro-Rajapaksa campaign needs to create a strong wave of confidence to unify UPFA voters to ensure a constructive UPFA voter turnout in the upcoming general election. The activities of the FCID and pressure mounted by law enforcement on individuals with corruption charges on Rajapaksa supporters will also negate operations of MR campaign. These arrests and investigations fosters a perception of corruption within the MR ranks while logistically hindering his campaign.

Despite all these ground realities Mahinda Rajapaksa entered the race as the President who ended the three decade long civil war in Sri Lanka. This favors him heavily within rural masses in Sri Lanka. However, the outcome of this election will depend largely on how the former President manages the aforesaid negative and disadvantageous factors. The challenge lying ahead of him at the moment will be bigger than the biggest challenge he has ever faced in 45-year long career in national level politics.